Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Markets Retreat Amid Fiscal Concerns

Stocks, bonds, and the dollar all retreated last week amid renewed focus on the U.S. budget deficit and rising debt. Fresh tariff threats were also a reminder that trade developments remain in the driver’s seat. Though the trigger was new, the underlying concern about fiscal sustainability is not. The question now appears to be whether these developments mark a turning point for markets, or simply a temporary pause, and what signals the bond market is sending.

A six-day string of gains for the S&P 500 was snapped on Tuesday as some of the previous week’s initial relief over prospects for a U.S.-China tariffs truce diminished. The negative sentiment extended into Wednesday as bond yields continued to rise and the S&P 500 finished down 1.6% for the day.

Technical Test for the S&P 500

Following the S&P 500’s (SPX) 20% rally off the April 7th lows, the index finally encountered a week of digestion, or consolidation in technical terms. This week’s 2.5% pullback in the SPX has brought the index right back to its 200-day Simple Moving Average, where the index is testing this long-term moving average as potential support, and so far, so good. In technical terms, this type of a re-test of previously cleared resistance (meaning the 200-day SMA in this case) is called a “throwback.” Assuming the index remains above the 200-day SMA early next week, the pullback would be classified as healthy consolidation, and the technical set-up is bullish.

Trade developments, of course, have dramatically affected volatility since early April, but the market’s recent focus has been on three additional catalysts behind the market’s shift in tone: a credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s, a weak 20-year Treasury auction, and news that the House passed a reconciliation bill—named the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—which extends expiring tax cuts and proposes new ones. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, the dollar weakened against major currencies, and equities pulled back amid renewed focus on the U.S. budget deficit and rising debt levels.

Gold and Bitcoin Rally

The price of gold climbed nearly 6% for the week to around $3,360 per ounce as the precious metal recovered all of the ground lost in the previous week’s decline. The latest week’s result extended a year-to-date rally that recently pushed gold to a record high of more than $3,400.

The price of Bitcoin, the most widely traded cryptocurrency, climbed for the sixth week in a row and briefly hit a record high of nearly $112,000 on Thursday. As of Friday afternoon, Bitcoin was trading around $109,000, up nearly 6% for the week and well above a recent low of around $75,000 in early April.

Looking Ahead

Near-term market gains may be harder to achieve. Because many tariffs are paused rather than removed, we are certainly not out of the woods yet. Overall, it appears that peak uncertainty is behind us as the negotiating process kicks into high gear. Also, history offers some encouraging perspective. Strong rallies like those seen since the April 8 lows are often followed by continued positive returns. The trailing one-month monthly gain ranks as the fifth strongest in the past 40 years. While follow-through over the next month can be mixed, historical trends suggest that 12-month returns following rallies of this magnitude have been strong.

In any case, at techtrader.com, we will always “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Stocks Rebound Strongly

The S&P 500 finished the week up more than 5% as the major U.S. indexes rebounded sharply from the previous week’s fractional declines. The latest results marked the fourth positive week out of the past six as stocks continued to regain their footing following the sharp declines recorded in late February to early April.

Overall, consumer durables, electronic technology, and transportation were the strongest performing sectors during the week, while health services, non-energy minerals, and communications lagged. Crude oil popped early in the week as recession fears cooled, but pulled back in the latter half on news of a possible US-Iran nuclear deal.

Gold Cools, Crypto Holds Strong

The price of gold fell for the third week out of the past four, marking a pause in a year-to-date rally that pushed the precious metal to a record high in April. Gold was trading around $3,200 per ounce on Friday afternoon, down nearly 5% for the week and well below its record of more than $3,400 set less than four weeks earlier. Gold cooled off this week, falling 3.9% as investors shifted their focus to equities and other risk assets, while crypto held its big push higher from the previous week.

NASDAQ Enters Bull Market

News on trade policies remained a key driver for markets this past week, with positive developments in the relation between the U.S. and China and in trade within the tech sector helping boost stock markets, placing the S&P 500 back into positive territory in 2025.

The NASDAQ has generated more volatile results than other major U.S. indexes in recent months, and on Monday it entered a bull market just six weeks after sinking into a short-lived bear market. The index’s 4% gain on Monday pushed it more than 20% above a recent low on April 8. On Friday, the NASDAQ closed less than 5% below its record high set on December 16, 2024.

An index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell for the seventh week in a row to roughly its year-end 2024 level. The Cboe Volatility Index closed on Friday down about 67% from a recent closing high reached on April 8, when uncertainty about tariffs sent the index sharply higher.

With the indices poised at KEY short-term resistance and with an overbought condition existing currently, I am looking for some sort of retest/retracement to occur to fortify the indices’ patterns technically. That implies a pullback this coming week may be in store!

We’ll soon see, but in any case, we at thetechtrader.com will always “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Strong Week for Stocks

Last week the major U.S. indexes posted weekly gains of around 3% as stocks extended the previous week’s positive trend. For the S&P 500, Friday’s gain marked the ninth positive day in a row—that index’s longest such streak since November 2004. Overall, stock markets have rebounded nicely over the last two weeks with the S&P 500 up about 8%, as first‑quarter data has held up and policymakers seem to be making progress on trade. Keep in mind that two or three pullbacks are normal in any year, especially as markets digest potentially higher inflation and softer growth. Nonetheless, we may see better sentiment heading into year‑end, as the Federal Reserve likely lowers interest rates, and earnings growth looks to recover heading into 2026.

April’s Volatility & Breadth

The S&P 500’s modest 0.7% decline in April doesn’t tell the full story of a month that generated plenty of volatility amid elevated trade tensions. As of April 8, the index had tumbled 12.6% from its closing level at the end of March; over the next three weeks, it recovered nearly all that amount to finish only slightly negative overall. There has been a dramatic improvement for members within the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (CCMP), and Russell 2000 (IWM) that are trading above their respective 200‑day Simple Moving Averages. In short, stocks had another strong up week and market breadth correspondingly continued to expand as a result.

Tech, Small‑Caps & Commodities

It sure feels like the sentiment around tech and the AI growth story experienced a bullish shift following earnings out of Alphabet and ServiceNow last Wednesday (April 23). The bullish momentum was given further support from strong earnings reports out of mega‑cap tech giants MSFT and META. Now the index is coming up against its first real test of near‑term resistance at the underside of the 200‑day SMA. The NDX was rejected at the 200‑day SMA back on March 25. From a near‑term technical trading perspective, the index is in a “show me” state, meaning the outlook is cautious until the NDX registers a close or two above the 200‑day SMA of 20,176.

Whether it’s being driven by the better‑than‑expected Q1 earnings season, improved investor sentiment, easing in Treasury yields, or because domestically focused small caps may be more immune to tariffs, the Russell 2000 index (RUT) has come back to life recently. The RUT is up 16% from its April 7 low, and on Friday, the index made a push above key resistance at the 2,000 level. This is a firm bullish development.

The price of U.S. crude oil fell to around $58 per barrel as April came to a close on Wednesday, and the commodity’s 18% decline over the course of the month was the biggest since November 2021. On Friday afternoon, oil traded around $58.50, down 7% for the week.

The better market sentiment we’ve seen has been driven by solid first‑quarter economic and earnings data, and the administration softening its tone on trade and tariffs. For sustainable progress from here, we would likely need to see more concrete evidence of trade deals with China and other trading partners.

Nonetheless, keep in mind that volatility is normal. In any given year, two to three pullbacks are likely, especially in a year when we have elevated uncertainty around tariffs, inflation and economic growth.

In any case, as always, we at TheTechTrader.com will “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Market Rebound

The major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Monday but posted big gains over the next four days to rebound from the previous week’s losses. The NASDAQ surged 6.7% for the week while the S&P 500 finished up 4.6% and the Dow rose 2.5%.

The rebound in markets since the April 9 tariff-pause has triggered a 10% rally in the S&P 500 from the low, leaving the index about 10% off its February 19 high. Prices are now at a key area, sitting between the pre-April 2 low and the post-April 2 high. Having moved away from extreme pessimism, any further gains will likely require more tangible developments and agreements with other countries, rather than just signs of easing tension.

Sector, Commodities & Crypto

The NASDAQ’s weekly outperformance relative to other major U.S. indexes stemmed from strong quarterly results from major technology companies and the tech sector’s overall strength during the week. Tech stocks in the S&P 500 surged nearly 8% on average for the week; in contrast, the consumer staples sector was down more than 1%.

Gold’s year-to-date rally was interrupted by a slightly negative weekly result that nevertheless saw the precious metal pass the $3,400-per-ounce level for the first time. Gold crossed that threshold on Monday but pulled back later in the week; on Friday afternoon, it was trading around $3,310—down fractionally for the week but up 24% year to date.

Stocks have also benefited from the tailwind of relatively lower oil prices, which are down sharply from their near-term high above $70 per barrel in early April to currently trade just over $63.

Bitcoin will also look to build on a stellar week, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped 12% and is now back within striking distance of $100,000.

Technical Outlook

Historically, after sizable market declines as the one experienced this year, it takes a while for volatility to return to average levels. More often than not, bottoming is a process, with stocks retesting prior lows. Two notable recent exceptions were the 2018 near-20% decline in the S&P 500 and the 2020 pandemic-induced bear market, where in both cases stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound, helped by a Fed pivot in 2018 and a strong combination of fiscal and monetary support in 2020. With the Fed constrained on what it can do by lingering inflation pressures and the government dealing with the reality of high deficits, I don’t expect a V-shaped rebound to the prior highs this time.

The S&P 500 (SPX) was in a trading range between the April 7 intraday low (4,835) and the prior March 13 low (~5,500), which had shifted from support to resistance once we broke below it during April. Late Friday that resistance was broken with a strong surge to 5,528 (close 5,525.21). Technically significant or an overshoot? We’ll certainly see next week, and it appears to be a very important technical time frame ahead of us that may determine market direction for the next few days and weeks.

In any case, as usual, we at TheTechTrader.com will always “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Sentiment weakened last week as all major U.S. indices sold off following the prior week’s corrective rally. The S&P 500 slipped 1.5 %, and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq fell about 2.6 %. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down roughly 10.2 %, while the Nasdaq is lower by about 15.7 %.

Although U.S. small‑cap stocks have lagged large caps for most of the year, the Russell 2000 bucked the trend and finished the week up more than 1 %.

Abroad, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX were muted. The U.K.’s FTSE looked far more confident, rallying over 4 % on hopes of a “special relationship” with the United States. In Asia, the Nikkei and Chinese markets continued their corrective rallies, closing marginally higher. Australia showed a similar pattern. India’s Nifty stood out, closing above multi‑month highs and testing January’s peak, while Brazil’s Bovespa also rallied—though, like most other markets, the move appears corrective.

Gold’s Surge & Market Volatility

Gold rose for the sixth week out of the past seven, eclipsing the $3,300‑per‑ounce level just a week after topping $3,200. By Friday, gold traded around $3,335—up more than 25 % year to date.
Market volatility is uncomfortable but normal. In any given year, two or three pullbacks are typical, especially during heightened uncertainty. History shows that time in the market consistently beats trying to time in and out, which often leads to poor decisions and lower returns.

Technical Outlook – Key Levels Ahead

Strictly technically, the indices backed off key overhead resistance as the prior week’s rally faded near those levels, retested, and then stabilized in a narrow range by week’s end. The coming week should reveal whether the rally off recent spike lows can extend or if nearby key support will hold; failure there could spell deeper trouble.

Either way, as always, we will “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

The back-and-forth of the week’s tariff-related news sent U.S. stocks and overseas markets on wild rides, producing big intraday swings. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose as much as 3.8% at one point before closing down 1.6%. The next day, the index surged 9.5%, recording its biggest daily gain since 2008.

Weekly Gains After Big Swings

Rising and falling trade tensions buffeted the stock market again, and by the time it was over, the major U.S. indexes recorded big gains that nevertheless fell short of offsetting the previous week’s more sizable losses. The NASDAQ surged more than 7% for the week, the S&P 500 added almost 6%, and the Dow climbed about 5%.

The S&P 500 almost entered a bear market on Tuesday, as its closing level left the index 19% below the record high that it had recorded on February 19. A decline of 20% or more would have marked a bear market. But then, the S&P 500 posted its third-largest daily gain since World War II. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 finished the week 12.7% below its record level.

Gold Surges to All-Time Highs

The price of gold climbed for the fifth week out of the past six, extending a year-to-date surge that pushed the precious metal’s price above the $3,200-per-ounce level for the first time. On Friday afternoon, gold was trading around $3,250, up 7% for the week and 22% year to date.

Volatility Surges, Then Calms

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—a measure of investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility—surged on Monday and briefly reached the highest level in five years, topping 60. Despite a series of big intraday swings throughout the week, the market eventually calmed, and the VIX was down around 17% for the week.

The index has reached that high only eight times in the past 35 years. Historically, it takes about eight months for volatility to return to normal. But what history shows is that fear creates opportunity: when the VIX has exceeded 43, forward six- and 12-month equity returns have tended to be strong—not because volatility is good, but because spikes usually occur when pessimism is already priced in.

Are Markets Carving Out a Bottom?

The spike in volatility, the reset in valuations, and signs that the worst-case trade war scenario may be averted suggest that stocks may find some support and possibly attempt to carve out a bottom.

The upside of this down market is that valuations are now more compelling. All major indexes are trading at or below their 10-year historical averages, potentially setting the stage for improved long-term returns.

In any case, here at thetechtrader.com, we will always: “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”

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