Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst
Strong Week for Stocks
Last week the major U.S. indexes posted weekly gains of around 3% as stocks extended the previous week’s positive trend. For the S&P 500, Friday’s gain marked the ninth positive day in a row—that index’s longest such streak since November 2004. Overall, stock markets have rebounded nicely over the last two weeks with the S&P 500 up about 8%, as first‑quarter data has held up and policymakers seem to be making progress on trade. Keep in mind that two or three pullbacks are normal in any year, especially as markets digest potentially higher inflation and softer growth. Nonetheless, we may see better sentiment heading into year‑end, as the Federal Reserve likely lowers interest rates, and earnings growth looks to recover heading into 2026.
April’s Volatility & Breadth
The S&P 500’s modest 0.7% decline in April doesn’t tell the full story of a month that generated plenty of volatility amid elevated trade tensions. As of April 8, the index had tumbled 12.6% from its closing level at the end of March; over the next three weeks, it recovered nearly all that amount to finish only slightly negative overall. There has been a dramatic improvement for members within the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (CCMP), and Russell 2000 (IWM) that are trading above their respective 200‑day Simple Moving Averages. In short, stocks had another strong up week and market breadth correspondingly continued to expand as a result.
Tech, Small‑Caps & Commodities
It sure feels like the sentiment around tech and the AI growth story experienced a bullish shift following earnings out of Alphabet and ServiceNow last Wednesday (April 23). The bullish momentum was given further support from strong earnings reports out of mega‑cap tech giants MSFT and META. Now the index is coming up against its first real test of near‑term resistance at the underside of the 200‑day SMA. The NDX was rejected at the 200‑day SMA back on March 25. From a near‑term technical trading perspective, the index is in a “show me” state, meaning the outlook is cautious until the NDX registers a close or two above the 200‑day SMA of 20,176.
Whether it’s being driven by the better‑than‑expected Q1 earnings season, improved investor sentiment, easing in Treasury yields, or because domestically focused small caps may be more immune to tariffs, the Russell 2000 index (RUT) has come back to life recently. The RUT is up 16% from its April 7 low, and on Friday, the index made a push above key resistance at the 2,000 level. This is a firm bullish development.
The price of U.S. crude oil fell to around $58 per barrel as April came to a close on Wednesday, and the commodity’s 18% decline over the course of the month was the biggest since November 2021. On Friday afternoon, oil traded around $58.50, down 7% for the week.
The better market sentiment we’ve seen has been driven by solid first‑quarter economic and earnings data, and the administration softening its tone on trade and tariffs. For sustainable progress from here, we would likely need to see more concrete evidence of trade deals with China and other trading partners.
Nonetheless, keep in mind that volatility is normal. In any given year, two to three pullbacks are likely, especially in a year when we have elevated uncertainty around tariffs, inflation and economic growth.
In any case, as always, we at TheTechTrader.com will “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think.”
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