Technical Market Briefing 01/23/23

Technical Market Briefing 01/23/23

Can Overhead Resistance Be Taken Out?

Last week the indices initially failed to get a strong enough follow through to the prior week’s rally and suffered a strong pullback retest. However, they managed to hold initial KEY technical price and moving average support on Thursday and surged back nearly 2% on Friday, finishing mixed with a small gain for the week on the Nasdaq 100 and just a small loss for the S&P 500.

All eleven S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain on Friday. Communication services (+4.0%) led by a wide margin thanks to Netflix and Alphabet. Other top performers on Friday were the information technology (+2.7%) and consumer discretionary (+2.5%) sectors, reflecting renewed interest in the mega cap space.

By the close on Friday, advancers led decliners by a 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. The strong surge back left both the S& P 500 & Nasdaq 100 just below their 1-year declining channel tops resistance lines. As a result, next week may be a critical one as the indices need to prove themselves with a breakout thrust to possibly complete important bottoming patterns and extend the rallies off their early month lows.

Key and leading sector ETFs such as SMH (Semiconductor), FAS (Financial) and XBI/LABU (Biotech) have developed BULLISH basing formations that could lead to important rallies in the next few weeks, if overhead resistance not too far away can be taken out.

That certainly remains to be seen, but nevertheless encouraging. Of course, we’ll keep you posted going forward at thetechtrader.com.

Remember: “Trade what you see NOT what you think.”

Harry Boxer
President & Founder, TheTechTrader.com


“Trade what you see, not what you think.”

WEEKLY TECHNICAL MARKET BRIEF BY Harry Boxer

Veteran Stock Trader, Analyst, Coach & Author

Technical Market Briefing 01/23/23

Technical Market Briefing 01/15/23

Start of a New Intermediate Uptrend or a Rally Back to Resistance?

The Indices had an important technical week last week, following through to the VERY strong upside
reversal that occurred on Friday, January 6th. The Nasdaq 100 was higher all 5 sessions and closed the week at the highs going away, aided by strong performances from large cap components AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, NFLX and TSLA. That index gained nearly 500 points for the week! The S&P 500 also followed through nicely and managed to close near 4,000, gaining about 100 points for the week.

Advance/Decline ratios were quite positive and confirming the trends. Now the indices have overhead objectives near resistance to deal with at NDX 11,800 and 12,100 levels. The SPX resistance appears to be at 4,050-53 and near 4,100.

The 13-14-month declining tops lines lie just ahead and are important levels to take out if this market has designs on much higher levels. However, for now, many underlying indicators, including the McClellan Oscillator percent of stocks over their 40-day moving averages and the VIX volatility index, are short-term overbought and/or near key overhead historical resistance levels.

The KEY to action going forward is the interpretation of whether or not the conditions are a result of an initial thrust that starts a new intermediate uptrend or just another rally back to resistance in a bearish overall downtrend. We should be getting answers to that question in the next days and weeks. The near-term action going forward may tell the tale of where this market wants to go.

The markets appear to be at a crossroads here, so pay close attention to what is revealed next week. Of course, as always, I’ll keep you posted with my thoughts at thetechtrader.com.

Remember: ” Trade what you see, not what your think”.

Harry Boxer, President & Founder​​

TheTechTrader.com


“Trade what you see, not what you think.”

WEEKLY TECHNICAL MARKET BRIEF BY Harry Boxer

Veteran Stock Trader, Analyst, Coach & Author

Technical Market Briefing 01/23/23

Technical Market Briefing 01/02/23

Is a Sharp Rally in the Horizon for the Start of 2023 or Will They Sink Even Further? 

The indices ended the year with a weak performance in the last week, finishing down on the SPX & NDX for 3 of the last 4 sessions, with the worst annual performance since 2008! Final results show the Dow Jones Industrial Average: -8.8%, S&P 500: -19.4%, Russell 2000: -21.6%, Nasdaq Composite: -33.1%.

What is worse, the patterns that formed over the last 2 weeks appear to be BEARISH continuation patterns and do not augur well for a strong start to the new year. In addition, the McClellan Oscillator finished near neutral at -6.37 and certainly NOT OVERSOLD by any means. The percentage of stocks that remain BELOW their 40-day moving average remains at 62.5%

Mega cap stocks and former market leaders, Nasdaq Generals, continue to show bearish patterns with many of them finishing the year at or near KEY technical support levels, even though some of the same mega cap names that drove the downside moves ended up closing with gains because of a very late rally back to close out the year.

Apple (AAPL 129.93, +0.32, +0.3%), Tesla (TSLA 123.18, +1.36, +1.1%), and Meta Platforms (META 120.34, +0.08, +0.1%) were among the winning standouts for the group. Notwithstanding the positive finish for these names, they still lost 26.8%, 65.0%, and 64.2%, respectively, in 2022. Combined individual violations of their close support levels could result in a nasty start to 2023, unless we get an almost immediate sharp rally off the current levels.

The first 10 days of the year often indicate how the year might go by historical standards but based on their earlier November rally and lack of a year end “Santa Claus” rally, there is no telling whether the early action in 2023 will be an indicator this coming year.

Remember to “Trade What You See NOT What you Think” in 2023 and stay tuned to TheTechTrader.com for future technical direction and advice.

A HAPPY and prosperous NEW YEAR to all from TheTechTrader.com team!

Harry Boxer, President & Founder​​

TheTechTrader.com


“Trade what you see, not what you think.”

WEEKLY TECHNICAL MARKET BRIEF BY Harry Boxer

Veteran Stock Trader, Analyst, Coach & Author

Accredited Investors Symposium 2/19-21

Accredited Investors Symposium 2/19-21

Join Harry At A Rare and Exclusive Event For Accredited Investors With The MoneyShow

FEBRUARY 19 – 21, 2023

New York Marriott at the Brooklyn Bridge

This brand-new conference is an innovative forum for accredited investors to explore this promising asset class, discover under-the-radar investment opportunities, and acquire the insights, strategies, and specific recommendations that can turn profit potential into profitable success.

Join 12 investing experts helping other accredited investors hedge their portfolios through exposure to asset classes that are not correlated to a traditional stocks and bonds portfolio, so they can protect their gains, while identifying new growth opportunities.

Get a Standard Pass to gain access to the event, or a VIP Membership giving you annual access to all Keynots, Workshops, Session & Courses.
Harry will be Presenting
1:00pm-3:30pm
In this MoneyMasters Class, you’ll learn how to:
  • Build your focus list for the session: This includes analyzing patterns from the previous day, as well as pre-market news and price/ volume percent gainers.
  • Analyzing the early action: With the vast majority of intraday day-tradable patterns initiated at or very close to the opening of trading, Harry will show you how to closely analyze the first 15-30 minutes of pattern and related volume development to recognize what stocks may be excellent day trades or at least strong early scalp plays
  • How to draw trendlines, set targets, and stops: Harry will show you how he continuously draws and monitors/updates throughout the session his trend lines, channels, and important developing continuation patterns such as flags, pennants, coils, in addition to adding support and resistance lines for targeting purposes.
  • Determine your time horizon and know when to swing trade: Harry will discuss the channel patterns and charting time frames that help in determining when to extend to a swing, plus his key rules for swing traders.

Check out the full line-up of talks and Masterclasses HERE

TradersCorner Virtual Investors Summit 12/15

TradersCorner Virtual Investors Summit 12/15

Join Harry Boxer and 7 other Expert Traders featured on the Traders Corner Investor’s Virtual Summit on December 15th, 2022

Experience A series of transformative webinars from some of the industry’s most accomplished trading professionals. Cutting edge software and trade methodologies will be presented. You’ll want to be sure to make time to watch the entire webcast.

Join Harry at 2:15PM

“How to Get More Profitable Day
& Swing Trading Results”

  • Why this is a CRITICAL time in the market and how my 60 yrs of trading and analysis using technical indicators and chart formations can assist my members
  • How using intraday 1 min charts and technical analysis will greatly enhance day trading/scalp profitability
  • Why I believe that the technical picture of stocks and indices nearly always tells what’s going on with a company and overall investors sentiment.

Check Out The Full Expert Lineup and Talks

11:15 AM ET.
Marina “The Trader Chick” Villatoro:
“4 Steps to Simplify Your Day Trading and Dominate the Market Under Any Condition”

12:00 PM ET:
Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud
Grab Your Paycheck and DONE in less than 2 hours / day.

12:45 PM ET:
Marcus Howard of Tradechology
“How to Secure $1,000,000 in Funded Trading Capital”

1:30 PM ET.
Greg Capra of Master Trader
“Trading with Common Sense Strategies”

2:15 PM ET:
Harry Boxer of The Tech Trader
“How to Get More Profitable Day & Swing Trading Results”

3:00 PM ET.
Todd “Bubba” Horwitz of BubbaTrading.Com
“Futures Portfolio Management”

3:45 PM ET.
David Gear of Buy Side Global
“How to Trade with Realtime Order-Flow Direction & Momentum”

4:30 PM ET.
Mark Sachs of Right Line Trading
“Huge Gains Using Market Internals Dominator”

*Many presenters are offering bonus items to everyone who attends the event.
 
*All registrants will receive recordings of the presentations.
 
Register Now to receive instant access to the Free E-Book:
“The 7 Must Have Stocks to Buy Now: Recession Proof Your Portfolio”

Technical Market Briefing 01/23/23

Technical Market Briefing 12/04/22

Is Santa Claus Coming To Wall Street This Year?

The indices extended the rally from the mid October lows last week, but only because Wednesday saw a huge rally that had the SPX jumping 123 and the NDX exploding more than 550! The rest of the week, both before and after, saw the indices fail to advance. Technicals were positive even on the down days for the most part, a positive divergence.

The rally last week saw the indices rally to their intermediate declining tops line resistance levels going back to their all-time highs established late last year. Going forward they will have to break through those and extend further or risk a deeper retracement. 

For the week, group leadership strength was centered in communications services and consumer discretionary sectors, but late in the week, the Chinese stock group exploded sharply and was dominant. Solar stocks also did well late in the week.

We’re headed into a normally stronger time of year in December and a “Santa Claus” year-end rally extension wouldn’t be a surprise, but since we’ve already been in rally mode since mid-October, this year might be different. Next week’s early action might give us clues as to the direction of the markets. Stay tuned!

Harry Boxer, President & Founder​​

TheTechTrader.com


“Trade what you see, not what you think.”

WEEKLY TECHNICAL MARKET BRIEF BY Harry Boxer

Veteran Stock Trader, Analyst, Coach & Author