Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Stocks Consolidating Near Record Highs

Stocks held near record highs set last week, aided by strong performance in the energy and industrial sectors that helped offset the risk-off sentiment driven by tariff headlines.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished with fractional weekly declines as they slipped from record levels set the previous week. The modest setback followed a two-week run of positive results that sent the S&P 500 more than 5% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index held up best.

For the first half of 2025 both the NDX & SPX gained about 6.5%. The trailing Russell 2000 finally edged into the plus side finishing +.21%.

Mega-Cap Concentration & Market Leadership Shifts

NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of mega-cap stocks.

The market remains somewhat top-heavy, but the Magnificent Seven are now behind the lead pack. There’s lots of concern about hefty concentration associated with the Magnificent Seven within the S&P 500, and given their size, they’re large contributors to index gains. But they’re not the best performers. In fact, no Magnificent Seven stock is in the top 10 year-to-date performers, and only three of the seven are outperforming the S&P 500.

Surging Commodities and Sentiment Risks

The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, climbed above $118,000 for the first time on Friday, posting a weekly gain of around 9%. Less than three weeks earlier, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $100,000.

The price of copper surged 13% to a record high on Tuesday after the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on copper imports to the United States. Silver futures also rallied, posting a weekly gain of around 6% as the metal climbed to the highest price since mid-2011.

A market warning sign is that lower quality, speculative pockets of the market have led the advance off the early April lows, which has helped push aggregate measures of investor sentiment back into extreme optimism territory. This is often seen at or near market tops and although it could continue for a while longer, it should certainly be a cause for caution for traders.

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Markets Hit New Highs with Growth Leading the Charge

Stock markets made new all-time highs last week. Overall, the three indexes were up around 2.0% in a holiday-shortened trading week, with both the S&P 500 and technology-heavy Nasdaq up about 5% year-to-date. Since the April lows, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have rebounded 24% and 33%, respectively.

An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed a large-cap benchmark and returned to positive territory on a year-to-date basis. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index climbed 3.6%, nearly 28% above a recent low recorded on April 8.

U.S. stock indexes finished this year’s second quarter with big gains despite April’s tariff-driven market decline. The S&P 500 climbed 10.6% overall after posting monthly gains of 6.2% in May and 5.0% in June. On a year-to-date basis, the index was up 5.5% as the quarter closed on Monday.

The relatively stronger rally in the mega-cap technology sector is the main driving technical force at this time. The renewed momentum in the technology and growth parts of the stock market is clear. In fact, while the broader S&P 500 is up about 24% since the April 8 lows, growth sectors like technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary are up well beyond this in some cases.

Bullish Technical Signals but Overbought Risks Loom

Technically, the S&P 500 index (SPX) saw a positive development on the charts this week as its 50-day moving average climbed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early April. That’s known as a golden cross, and it’s a technical signal that many traders consider bullish. The index is up 25% from the April low, but less than 6% year to date. When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it’s usually seen as a positive technical signal.

While momentum is likely on the trader’s side in the near term, in the weeks ahead, the markets will have to digest tariff and trade updates and potentially softer economic data. Markets may experience more bouts of volatility as a result.

Since the oscillators and several other closely followed technical indicators are nearing the overbought levels we’ve seen near market tops in the past few years, it’s quite logical to expect pullbacks or retests of key underlying support levels in the weeks ahead.

Oil Pulls Back, Rate Cuts Priced In

U.S. WTI crude oil, which had risen over 20% in June to $75 per barrel, fell about 13% last week, down to around $65 per barrel. This fall in oil and energy has appeared to support market sentiment in recent days as well, helping drive equity markets to new highs.

Markets are now pricing in two or three rate cuts in 2025, according to CME FedWatch. And Treasury yields across the curve have moved lower, with both 2-year and 10-year yields well below highs from earlier this year. These moves lower in interest rates are positive for consumers and corporations and supportive of better stock market sentiment broadly.

In any case, we at thetechtrader.com will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Market Mixed as Middle East Tensions Escalate

U.S. stock indexes fell on Friday amid heightened anxiety in the Middle East, sending the market lower. U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week narrowly mixed, fluctuating throughout the week amid a slew of headlines regarding escalating tensions in the Middle East. After recording gains the previous two weeks, the S&P and the NASDAQ closed mixed.

Smaller-cap indexes performed best for the week, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively flat, while the S&P 500 Index finished modestly lower.

Sector and Stock Highlights

The best-performing sectors were financial services, up 0.89%, and energy, up 0.87%. The worst-performing sectors were healthcare, down 2.43%, and basic materials, down 1.33%. Large-cap stocks lost 0.31%, mid-cap stocks rose 0.54%, and small-cap stocks rose 0.89%.

Top stock gainers included EchoStar (SATS), Coinbase Global (COIN), Reddit (RDDT), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), and Estée Lauder (EL).

Solars were the leading group to the downside after losing solar credits. Sunrun (RUN), Solaredge Technologies (SEDG), Enphase Energy (ENPH), First Solar (FSLR), and Plug Power (PLUG) performed the worst.

Commodities, Crypto, and Technical Picture

The price of U.S. crude oil surged more than 7% on Friday to the highest level in four months after Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities raised the prospect of oil supply disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures for the broader economy. On Friday afternoon, oil was trading around $73 per barrel, up nearly 12% for the week.

The price of gold resumed its year-to-date climb, rising to new highs that eclipsed earlier records set in late April and early May. The precious metal was trading around $3,450 per ounce on Friday afternoon, up from about $3,320 at the end of the previous week and $2,600 at the end of last year.

Crypto had a relatively quiet week, with Bitcoin briefly dropping outside its prior week’s range before trading back into it. The Senate’s approval of the GENIUS Act (a bill that establishes clear regulations for stablecoins) didn’t seem to impact price.

Technical Setups to Watch

Technically, the indices appear to be coming off KEY overhead resistance and may do some testing of lower levels, but the trend is your friend, and KEY support price and moving averages support below are still holding for now. We may soon see if the indices will make a more directional move, as the indices have been consolidating in relatively narrow ranges for a few weeks now.

In any case, as usual, at thetechtrader.com, we will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Market Slips on Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. stock indexes fell on Friday amid heightened anxiety in the Middle East, sending the market to a negative week overall. After recording gains the previous two weeks, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posted fractional weekly declines.

Smaller-cap indexes fared worst, with the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 indexes falling 1.46% and 1.49%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.32% and dropped back into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite fell to a lesser extent and remained positive year-to-date.

Midweek Optimism Cut Short

Major indexes were broadly higher through Thursday, buoyed by some better-than-expected economic data releases as well as reports that trade talks between the U.S. and China had led to a preliminary agreement to ease recent trade tensions.

However, sentiment quickly turned negative on Friday morning on news that Israel had launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders. The significant escalation in tensions sent oil prices surging, benefiting energy stocks, while the broader indexes fell sharply and gave back gains from earlier in the week.

Technical Picture and Key Indicators

The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100® (NDX) still trades well above its 200-day moving average. Now its 50-day moving average is beginning to catch up with the 200-day. If the 50-day crosses over the 200-day, that would likely be seen as a bullish technical sign. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NDX is approaching recent highs at close to 68, suggesting it may be near what are commonly seen as overbought areas.

Commodities and Crypto React

The price of U.S. crude oil surged more than 7% on Friday to the highest level in four months. On Friday afternoon, oil was trading around $73 per barrel, up nearly 13% for the week.

The price of gold resumed its climb, rising to new highs that eclipsed earlier records set in late April and early May. Gold was trading around $3,450 per ounce on Friday afternoon, up from about $3,320 at the end of the previous week and $2,600 at the end of last year.

Overall, energy minerals, consumer durables, and health technology were the sectors that performed the best during the week, while commercial services, retail trade, and transportation lagged.

Crypto had a volatile week. Bitcoin surged on Monday, temporarily trading above $110,000, but spent the rest of the week pulling back, briefly dropping below $103,000. Bitcoin is now up 11% this year, but more than 1000% in the last five years!

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rallied more than 10% following the attack on Iran after falling about 60% over the last two months. Futures trading at the Cboe suggests VIX could remain above the historic average of 20 through the rest of the year, possibly a warning of choppiness ahead.

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Market Strength Continues, but Resistance Lies Ahead

Last week, the major U.S. stock indexes recorded their second positive week in a row, rising around 1% to 2% for the week. The results pushed indexes to their highest levels in more than three months.

Just two months after the April 8 low, stocks have mounted an impressive recovery, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 20% since then. However, it remains approximately 3% below its record high and lags behind some of its international large-cap peers.

An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed its large-cap counterpart by a wide margin during the week, although small caps continued to lag larger stocks on a year-to-date basis. The small-cap index was up 3.2% for the week versus a 1.6% gain for its large-cap peer.

Despite U.S. stocks’ overall positive week, two sectors commonly regarded as defensive segments of the market finished in negative territory. Stocks in the S&P 500’s consumer staples and utilities sectors were down 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively, the worst among the index’s 11 sectors.

Volatility Eases, Oil Surges, and Summer Catalysts Loom

An index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell for the eighth week out of the past nine. On Friday afternoon, the CBOE Volatility Index fell to a level of 16.8, down from 18.6 at the end of the previous week and far below a recent peak of 52.3 on April 8.

The price of U.S. crude oil surged more than 6% as the commodity climbed to its highest price in six weeks. The gain offset modest price declines for oil over the previous two weeks.

Summer isn’t typically associated with tests, but this year may be an exception for markets. After a solid run supported by resilient fundamentals, investors now face a season that could bring meaningful catalysts. From potential trade developments and tariff headlines to evolving Fed policy and fiscal debates, the months ahead may test the recent momentum and shape the market’s direction for the second half of the year.

The July 9 expiration of the 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariff rates and the Aug. 12 end of China’s 90-day pause pose potential catalysts for volatility.

However, markets seem to be starting to look ahead, setting their eyes on the possibility of more stimulative fiscal and monetary policies in 2026. The markets have technically always discounted the future 6–9 months ahead, and what we are currently seeing in terms of price improvement and momentum appears to be proving this scenario.

Sector Strength and Participation Warning Signs

Still, much of the upside came from the three growth sectors—information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary—which together account for over 50% of the S&P 500. Tech earnings grew 20%, communication services surged 33%, and consumer discretionary rose 8%, helping to restore investor confidence in this part of the market that fell briefly out of favor earlier this year.

Although these three sectors have typically led the markets, it may be a sign of narrower participation. I have always preferred the markets to have broader participation, and this should be closely monitored, as it may indicate that the markets are nearing an area that could prove formidable in terms of resistance. As such, additional price progress may be more difficult than we’ve seen since the April lows.

In any case, we at the techtrader.com will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Stocks Bounce Back After Recent Consolidation

U.S. stocks rebounded during the holiday-shortened week, although major indexes faced some selling pressure late in the week and finished below their best levels. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, gaining 2.01%, followed by the S&P 500 Index (1.88%).

The old Wall Street adage states, “Sell in May and go away.” However, this year investors did just the opposite. We saw a nice surge in May, with the S&P 500 rising 6.2% (after falling nearly 6% in the first four months of the year). The NASDAQ finished about 9.6% higher for the month.

Historically, since 1980, there have been six times that the S&P 500 moved higher by 5% or more in May. In all six cases, the market was higher in the next 12 months following this move.

Since its April 8 lows, the S&P 500 has climbed over 18%. Last week both Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indices advanced near 2%.

Recent results have left the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow little changed on a year-to-date basis, despite the market downturn from late February to early April.

Technical Indicators to Watch

Last week the SPX experienced a technical “throwback” to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and support kicked in this week, meaning the index bounced off this indicator, which is what you want to see if you are bullish. However, the SPX failed to make a “higher high,” which makes the bounce a little more suspect.

At this point, it appears the index is in a 100-point trading range period of consolidation, likely between 5,767 and 5,968. Therefore, we’ll have to let time dictate direction, but a move above the recent high of 5,943 would be considered bullish, and a drop below 5,767 would be considered bearish.

Sector Performance in May

The leading group relative strength performance in May saw Information Technology +10.2%, Consumer Discretionary +9.7%, and Communications Services +8.6%. Nine of eleven groups experienced gains while Energy remained unchanged. Only Health Care saw a negative performance with a 5.9% loss for May.

Crypto, Gold, and Oil Pause

After making a new all-time high the previous week, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market pulled back significantly last week. Bitcoin managed to remain within its prior week’s range as investors digested gains.

Likewise, gold and oil both spent the week consolidating within their recent ranges.

Treasury Yields Retreat

The yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fell back below the 5.00% threshold a week after it climbed to the highest level since 2023 amid concerns about the long-term outlook for U.S. government debt. The 30-year yield ended the week around 4.91%, down from a recent peak of 5.09% on May 21. Shorter-dated Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year yield finishing at 4.39%.

In any case, at techtrader.com, we always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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