Nasdaq Hits a Record High as Yields Spike to Multi-Decade Highs and Housing Feels the Pressure

Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs While Equities Stay Resilient

Global interest rates continue to push higher in the face of inflation risks, robust growth, and hawkish central banks. These forces pushed U.S. Treasury yields to new multi-decade highs last week, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly touching 5.20% while the 30-year closed just shy of 5.5%.

Equity markets were impressively resilient in the face of this spike. Beneath the surface, however, higher rates sparked another rotation in leadership, as large-cap stocks outperformed smaller companies and international equities. Large-cap stocks, particularly those in the tech sector, held up well given strong balance sheets and solid growth profiles, while small-cap stocks lagged given their tendency to carry more debt and greater sensitivity to interest rate moves.

The Nasdaq climbed to a record high on Tuesday, eclipsing a previous peak reached in early June, before pulling back modestly on Wednesday. By Friday’s close the Nasdaq finished 2.1% higher for the week and the S&P 500 gained 1.2%.

Oil Eases, Housing Feels the Pain

An apparent easing of tensions in the Middle East conflict sent oil prices lower, with U.S. crude down to roughly $92 per barrel on Friday afternoon. As recently as September 15, oil traded as high as $106. The year-to-date peak came in early April at $113.

Inflation worries and the Fed’s latest interest rate hike continued to weigh on the U.S. housing market, as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7.00%. Freddie Mac reported the previous week’s average had reached 7.03%, the highest since January 2025. A subsequent daily survey by Mortgage News Daily found the average had climbed further to around 7.45% as of Friday.

My Technical Read: A Breakout That Still Needs Follow-Through

Last week saw a breakout of the six and a half week five-wave declining channel, but the move failed to follow through and take out the all-time high set August 13th at 7,816.70. We will be looking to see if the coming week results in a new high or whether resistance is formidable enough to keep prices contained for now.

Key SPX and NDX Technical Levels to Watch

SPX resistance near 7,780, 7,816, and 7,985-8,000. Support appears near 7,665-70, 7,550, and 7,500-07.
NDX resistance at 30,770 and 31,950-32,000. Chart support near 28,550, 28,200, and 27,300.

In any case, as we always do at TheTechTrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

— HARRY BOXER, THE TECHNICAL TRADER | www.thetechtrader.com