Stocks Snap a Five-Week Losing Streak, But the Work Is Far From Done
The major U.S. indexes finished the week 3% to 4% higher as stocks regained traction following five consecutive weekly declines. Conflict in the Middle East continued to drive the market, resulting in a rally on Tuesday and sizable intraday swings in a holiday-shortened trading week. The sharp rally on Tuesday accounted for most of the weekly rise, with the three major indexes recording their biggest daily percentage gains since last May. The Nasdaq climbed 3.8%, the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, and the Dow added 2.5%.
A Rough Quarter in the Books
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in March fell for the second month in a row, with both dropping around 5%. The Dow fell more than 5%, snapping a 10-month positive streak for that index. Over the first three months of 2026, all three indexes sustained their biggest quarterly declines in nearly four years.
Oil Back on the Move
After two weeks of relative calm in global oil markets, geopolitical tensions escalated again, raising fresh concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil shipments in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude was trading around $112 per barrel on Friday, the highest since mid-2022 and well above the $90 to $100 level that oil had traded through most of March.
Gold and Bitcoin Find Their Footing
Gold prices recovered some of the ground lost in March, though they remained well below the precious metal’s record high of around $5,500 per ounce set in late January. On Friday, gold was trading around $4,700, up nearly 4% for the week.
Bitcoin got a boost during the first half of the week, briefly topping $69,270 before broader market volatility pulled it down to as low as $65,700 by Thursday’s close. While Bitcoin managed to close green in March, its first green month since September 2025, it continues to trade below a key monthly trendline originating from its all-time high made in October 2025.
Technically, both the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Equal Weight Index moved back above their respective 200-day SMAs, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index moved back above its 100-day SMA. These are encouraging signs worth watching closely.
Key SPX Technical Levels to Watch
SPX technical levels to closely monitor this coming week: Support near 6,475, 6,400, 6,300-15, and 6,250, with a possible deeper level at 5,950-6,000. Resistance sits at the 6,636-50 zone, then 6,750-55 and 6,845.
In any case, as we always do at TheTechTrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”
— HARRY BOXER, THE TECHNICAL TRADER | www.thetechtrader.com
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