A Fourth Consecutive Week of Declines

Markets remain on edge as the Iran conflict enters its fourth week, with stocks moving in the opposite direction of the sharp swings in oil prices. Recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure triggered the first 5% pullback in the S&P 500 this year, underscoring investor sensitivity to escalating geopolitical risks.

The stock market’s positive early-week momentum didn’t hold, and the major U.S. indexes finished the week down roughly 2%. The market’s fourth negative week in a row left the S&P 500 6.8% below the record high it reached in late January. The Nasdaq was 9.6% below its October 2025 peak, just shy of the 10% threshold for a correction. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added to their yearly losses. Year to date, the SPX is down 5%, while the Nasdaq is off nearly 7%.

Brent crude, the European benchmark for global oil pricing, briefly retested its $120 highs, while WTI, the U.S. benchmark, climbed toward $100. Year to date, oil is up 74%.

How often have market corrections of 10% or more turned into entrenched bear markets?

Turns out, not often. Short periods of pullbacks ranging from 5% to 10% have been more common. While these may feel unsettling, a drop of 5% has occurred on average twice per year, while corrections of 10% or more have happened every 18 months on average.

Gold and Bonds Under Pressure

Precious metals suffered as well. Gold prices dropped nearly 10%, falling for the third week in a row and interrupting a precious metals rally that dates to early 2025. Gold futures were trading around $4,500 per ounce on Friday afternoon, down $1,000 from a record high of more than $5,500 set in late January.

Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the third week in a row as well, lifting the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury to Friday’s close of 4.39%, the highest level in about eight months.

My Technical Read

Set Up for a Spike Down and Possible Sharp Recovery

With the indices closing near their weekly and yearly lows, the setup is there for a spike down follow-through to extreme short-term oversold readings and a subsequent possible sharp recovery.

We’ll be looking for potential deep oversold readings on both the early negative tick reading near the -1,400 to -1,500 level and a possible McClellan Oscillator reading below -200, along with a spike in the VIX volatility index to the high 30s, low 40s, or higher. That index reached over 60 last April at the spike low.

Key technical levels to watch are SPX support near 6,400-6,405 and 6,350-60. Technical resistance appears near 6,620-25, 6,675-83, 6,700-05, and 6,770-75.

In any case, as we always do at TheTechTrader.com, we will “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

— HARRY BOXER, THE TECHNICAL TRADER | www.thetechtrader.com

A Third Consecutive Week of Declines

Stocks experienced heightened volatility last week as the conflict in Iran and related disruptions to global oil supply continued to weigh on markets. The major U.S. stock indexes fell for the third consecutive week. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% for the week and is now off 3.1% on the year to date. The Nasdaq lost 1.3% and is off nearly 5% for the year so far.

The three-week string of declines for the S&P 500 left the index nearly 5% below its record high reached on January 27. The Nasdaq was nearly 8% below its October 29, 2025 record.

Oil Remains a Wild Card

Oil prices were volatile last week. WTI crude futures approached $120 per barrel before retreating after President Donald Trump signaled early in the week that the conflict could end soon. Despite that, oil prices remain about 45% above their pre-conflict level, and markets are concerned that they could stay elevated longer than previously anticipated.

While geopolitical shocks have historically had short-lived market effects, the magnitude of current disruptions suggests it may take time for prices to return toward the 2025 average of roughly $65 per barrel.

Since the conflict began, Japan, Korea, and the euro area have each declined by 8% or more, and each region imports more than half of their total energy needs.

Volatility Eases Slightly but Stays Elevated

The CBOE VIX index eased slightly for the week but remained elevated, finishing at 27.2, down from 29.5 at the end of the previous week. As recently as January 23, the VIX was below 16.

While stocks remain captive to oil prices in both directions, markets have been relatively resilient at the index level. That’s not true for individual stocks, many of which suffered double-digit losses over the last two weeks. Continue to expect violent rotations at times given how much short attention span money there is among traders.

One sector in the spotlight is consumer discretionary, already one of the worst performers of the year but potentially subject to more downward pressure if consumers push back amid higher gas prices. The energy sector, meanwhile, is becoming the momentum trade, meaning its strength is feeding off of how well it has been doing.

My Technical Read: A Critical Level Is Fast Approaching

Technically, the S&P 500’s November closing low of 6,538 could be a level to watch. The 200-day moving average at 6,600 may be the first point of support on another descent. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed below its 200-day moving average since last May.

The SPX 50-day moving average, which we follow closely, is substantially above current levels at 6,884. Price resistance levels sit at 6,710, 6,740, 6,785, and 6,845. SPX support appears near Friday’s closing level at 6,622-25, then sharply lower near the 6,522-34 zone. Technically, a violation of that key zone could quickly lead to an index plunge near 6,445-50 and even 6,275-80.

In any case, as we always do at TheTechTrader.com, we will “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

— HARRY BOXER, THE TECHNICAL TRADER | www.thetechtrader.com

A Difficult Week Across the Board

Last week was a difficult one in markets. The Middle Eastern conflict, rising oil prices, and a disappointing monthly jobs report weighed on stocks, and U.S. indexes fell for the second week in a row.

Oil prices spiked more than 30%, major U.S. equity markets were down between 2% and 5%, international and emerging-market equities fell an even larger 5% to 10%, and 10-year government bond yields jumped 20 basis points (0.2%).

A Perfect Storm of Stagflation Fears

There was something of a perfect storm in markets last week. An oil price spike in the wake of the conflict in Iran sparked concerns over higher inflation, while a weak payrolls report added to fears on the growth side. Markets pulled back given this stagflationary mix, especially amid uncertainty over the willingness of the Fed to ease policy in this environment.

With oil shipments in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed, U.S. crude was trading around $91 per barrel late Friday afternoon, up from $67 a week earlier.

Index Performance and Key Movers

Specifically, the S&P 500 lost 2% and is now off 1.2% year to date. The Nasdaq lost 1.2% and is down 3.7% year to date. The PHLX Semiconductor Index saw its worst weekly performance, down 4%, since November.

Nonetheless, the S&P 500 is still higher by about 17% over the past year and remains just 3% below all-time highs.

The VIX, a short-term U.S. stock market volatility gauge, climbed sharply on Friday to the highest level since last spring’s tariff-related surge in volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 29.5 on Friday afternoon, up 48% from its closing level of the previous week.

Bitcoin may retest recent support levels after its rejection at the 50-day EMA. The first level of support may be $65,000, its current cost of production, and potentially $60,000, its recent low.

My Technical Read: A Potential Three-Month Top in the Making

Technically the indices seem to have formed potential three-month top patterns and are now teetering on the brink of a possible serious break in important support.

We are closely monitoring key support near SPX 6,720. Under 6,700-20 we may start a bigger slide to test lower levels near 6,630, and even 6,520. Currently, important resistance appears near the 6,885-6,900 zone.

In any case, as we always do at TheTechTrader.com, we will “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

HARRY BOXER, THE TECHNICAL TRADER | www.thetechtrader.com