Are We Headed for a “Santa Claus” Rally?
The indices put on a show last week finishing with one of the best weekly gains in years with the S&P 500 surging over 220 as the NDX ran nearly 1000 points! Technicals were strong as the up/down volume and advance/decline ratios confirmed the price movements. However, when the week ended the indices were perched at resistance and appear vulnerable to at least a possible pullback /retest or consolidation. in addition, the indices had completed a 3 wave advance and are due for a 4th wave pullback retest as well.
So the next several sessions may see a more difficult trading environment in what’s looking more and more like a year end rally in the making. Right now 4000-4008 on the S&P 500 appears to be short term formidable resistance as is 11850-60 on the Nasdaq 100 or NDX.
When the next wave is completed my price level forecast projections lie near SPX 4115-25 and at the NDX 12400-450 zone, with support near SPX 3860 & 3780 A deeper retracement could see a test of 3640 and possibly 3568 On the NDX Support appears to be near 11235 & 10800.
Current action also shows hundreds of stocks breaking through declining channel tops resistance with moving averages crossing over bullishly upward. These certainly are strong indicators of upside trend reversals, as well.
In summary the week ahead may be a key to the direction for the rest of this year and whether of not we will experience a “Santa Claus” rally.
“Trade what you see, not what you think.”