Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Record Highs and a Three-Year Bull Run

Stocks advanced for the week. Each of the major U.S. indexes climbed around 2% for the week as stocks extended the previous week’s positive momentum. The S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow eclipsed record highs set early this month. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index and the S&P MidCap 400 Index outperformed their large-cap counterparts.

Within the S&P 500 Index, information technology and energy led the way; utilities and consumer staples lost ground.

Stocks continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry as the bull market celebrates a significant milestone this month: its third birthday. It was in October 2022 that equities bottomed, having declined nearly 25% amid peak inflation. Just a month later, the release of ChatGPT helped ignite a powerful rally in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Since the October 2022 low, the S&P 500 has gained more than 90%. No doubt it’s been an impressive run, but this bull market isn’t an outlier in terms of strength or length. Looking back over the past 80 years, the 12 prior bull markets (excluding the current one) have averaged a gain of about 200% and lasted five years. Notably, eight of those made it past the three-year mark, with the longest (2009 to 2020) stretching 11 years. So, this bull market gain is really just average!

Valuations, Earnings, and Market Outlook

As the saying goes, bull markets don’t die of old age — they end from recessions or Federal Reserve tightening. I believe neither is likely in 2026.

Barring a late-year correction, the S&P 500 is on track to notch its third consecutive year of double-digit returns, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio to cycle highs. Valuations are likely approaching a ceiling, as investors may be reluctant to pay the lofty multiples seen during the tech bubble. Corporate earnings will need to take the lead in driving further market gains and extending the bull run.

Over the next two weeks, nearly 60% of S&P 500 companies will report results, including the bulk of the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla). This group is expected to post 15% year-over-year earnings growth, compared with 6.7% for the remaining 493 companies and 8.5% for the index overall.

After a stretch of steady gains, it’s important for traders to maintain realistic expectations for returns and volatility. The S&P 500 has gone over 100 days without a 5% pullback, and recent uncertainties may serve as catalysts for the rally to pause and consolidate, though the new highs last week argue otherwise.

Speculative and momentum areas of the market (nuclear, quantum, rare earth, uranium, drone, tech, etc.) continued to correct last week, though rebounded some on Friday.

Commodities, Crypto, and Technical Levels

Gold’s string of consecutive weekly price gains was halted at nine as the precious metal sustained its first retreat since mid-August. Gold futures were trading around $4,120 on Friday afternoon, down from a record of around $4,350 reached on Monday.

The price of U.S. crude oil snapped a three-week string of declines as the United States imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers. Oil was trading around $61.50 per barrel on Friday afternoon and up nearly 7% for the week after briefly sinking below $57 a week earlier. Nevertheless, oil remained well below a recent peak of $75 reached in mid-June.

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market rallied early in the week before pulling back later in the week. Crypto is attempting to bounce after bearish price action from the prior week, which saw bitcoin fall over 5%.

Key technical levels to monitor next week for the S&P 500 (SPX) are support at 6550–55, 6388–90, and 6212–15. Resistance lies near 6850–55, 6910–12, and 6935–45.

In any case, at thetechtrader.com we will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Volatility Rises as Stocks Show Signs of Exhaustion

Last week each of the major U.S. indexes posted gains of around 2% as stocks rebounded from a setback the previous week, when indexes fell more than 2%. Stock trading was choppy amid big price moves for assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold.

After a six-month 35% steady move higher, the S&P 500 rally is now facing challenges, showing signs of exhaustion. Market indicators, such as the rising VIX volatility index, and a shift toward safe-haven assets, like U.S. Treasuries, suggest some signs of investor fatigue is setting in. As a result, I think the stock market gains may be due for at least a pause and possibly a deeper pullback.

Volatility and Investor Sentiment

The Cboe Volatility Index on Friday morning briefly reached its highest intraday level since April near 29 before retreating in the afternoon. By Friday’s close, the VIX was actually down slightly for the week. The VIX volatility index, often referred to as the Wall Street fear gauge, has now climbed above 20, after spending much of the last few months in the mid-teens.

We have also seen larger one-day and intraday swings in markets overall, with the S&P logging its first 2% drawdown in one day since April on October 10.

There are several fundamental headwinds or walls of worry that the market needs to climb ahead, such as uncertainty around tariffs and trade, a possible U.S. government shutdown, new concerns around small regional banks emerging, and signals coming from the bond markets and the VIX volatility index.

Gold Surges, Bitcoin and Oil Slide

Gold futures surged more than 5% for the week and notched their ninth weekly gain in a row. The precious metal briefly reached as high as $4,392 per ounce on Friday morning—just eight days after eclipsing the $4,000 level for the first time.

The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, briefly fell on Friday morning to its lowest level in three months before modestly rebounding in the afternoon. Bitcoin slipped below $104,000—around 17% below a record high of more than $126,000 reached less than two weeks earlier, on October 6.

The price of U.S. crude oil fell for the third week in a row and sank on Friday to the lowest level in more than five months. Oil briefly traded below $57 per barrel before rebounding in the afternoon. Concerns about a potential oil supply glut and the economic outlook have recently weighed on oil prices.

Also, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below 4.00% for the first time since April, when tariff concerns boosted investor anxiety and traded at its lowest level in 12 months.

Key Technical Levels and the Road Ahead

Important short-term technical support now lies near SPX 6550–55, 6380, and 6200–12. Technical resistance and projections near 6720–25 and 6760–62.

With the usual October historically weak period upon us, we can at least expect continued increased volatility. Suggest traders pay close attention to support and resistance on your charts and keep sensible stops in place.

In any case, we at thetechtrader.com will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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Technical Stock Market Briefing for Day & Swing Traders
| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Summer Rally Meets Seasonal Headwinds

The market’s summer rally has been impressive, but the winds of autumn tend to test investor resolve. Historical patterns point to a bumpier ride in the months ahead, even as underlying fundamentals remain supportive.

The major U.S. stock indexes finished fractionally lower for the week after the market’s midweek gains were offset by a Friday pullback entering the holiday weekend. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed above the 6,500-point level for the first time, but it slipped
back below that threshold the next day.

Gold Record Highs & AI Expectations

The price of gold futures rose for the second week in a row and reached a record high of as much as $3,518 per ounce in Friday afternoon trading—up more than 31% year to date.

Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a dominant market driver, with strong infrastructure investment and economic contributions. However, lofty expectations — as highlighted by NVIDIA’s muted earnings reaction — are becoming a headwind.

NVIDIA’s muted stock reaction despite impressive growth underscores the challenge of high investor expectations. While AI infrastructure demand remains robust, growth rates will naturally moderate over time. Still, it seems that AI adoption is in its early
innings and will continue to be a dominant market theme.

Rotation to Small Caps & Broader Participation

Strong indications of Fed policy changes are sparking a healthy rotation in previously overlooked areas of the market. Interest rate-sensitive small-cap stocks surged 7.5% in August, their best month of relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 in nine months.
Autos, airlines and homebuilders also posted strong gains, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 reached new highs, signaling broader market participation.

Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to be supportive for equities when the economy is not in recession, and current conditions suggest we are on that path.

Seasonal Volatility Ahead

September and October have often brought increased market fluctuations and softer returns. However, these headwinds tend to be short-lived, with markets typically rebounding strongly afterward.

In any case, as we always do at thetechtrader.com, we will “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think”

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