| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Markets Push to Record Highs Before Late-Week Reversal

Last week the major U.S. indices started on a positive note, sending the S&P 500 to a record high exceeding 7000 intraday for the first time ever on Wednesday, but the market turned negative the last 2 sessions and finished mixed overall for the week. The S&P 500 still managed to gain 0.3% on the week while the recently weaker Nasdaq gave black 0.2% ,a result of an apparent rotation out of many large cap market leader tech stocks.

January Delivers Another Month of Gains

The U.S. stock markets maintained modestly positive momentum in January, with each of the three major indexes posting monthly gains of monthly gains of around 1% to 2%. For the S&P 500, it was the eighth positive monthly result out of the past nine; for the Dow, it was the ninth positive month in a row.

However, I would characterize the price action over the last two days of the week as a “risk off” shift in sentiment–the tech sector has been hit with heavy selling (outside of a few pockets) The only two sectors that were higher on Friday were consumer staples and health care, which are classic defensive plays. This type of speculative deleveraging could be a short-term phenomenon, but it does create some near-term technical damage so healing could take time.

Gold and Silver Go Parabolic—Then Reverse Hard

The highlight of the week however saw gold and silver prices go parabolic to record highs on Thursday, only to get crushed on Friday and finish negative for the week following the nomination of a new Fed chair. Gold futures were trading for less than $4,900 per ounce late Friday afternoon, just a day after climbing as high as $5,586. Silver took an even steeper dive, sinking to around $82 per ounce on Friday after peaking at $121 the day before.

In addition, the price of Bitcoin, the most widely traded cryptocurrency, was down around 4% for the week as of Friday afternoon, extending a decline that began last fall. Bitcoin dove near $81,000 and was trading around $84,000 near the close. That was down from a record $126,000 reached less than four months earlier. As recently as January 13, Bitcoin was trading around $97,000.

Volatility Spikes as Tech Earnings Diverge

The Cboe Volatility index (VIX) ramped up and nearly hit 20 on an intraday basis on Thursday, following a post-earnings tech-fueled sell-off. Several key tech earnings reports were one of the main drivers for the uptick in volatility–Meta Platforms rallied nearly 10% while Microsoft nearly declined the same amount; Memory and storage-related stocks such as SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital, rallied on strong results and guidance.

Oil Prices Surge to Multi-Month Highs

The price of U.S. crude oil was up nearly 7% for the week as of Friday afternoon at roughly $66 per barrel, the highest level in more than four months. While oil was up around 13% on a year-to-date basis, it remained well below prices recorded in early 2025.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Technical levels to closely monitor next week are SPX support near 6840 , 6789-90 and key support near 6720. Resistance obviously near 7000, If exceed with a thrust a market extension to 7050 & 7140 may be possible

In any case, as we always do at thetechtrader.com , we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think”
Harry Boxer, THE TECHNICAL TRADER at www.thetechtrader.com

| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Markets Slip Modestly but Remain Near Record Highs

For the second week in a row, the S&P 500,-0.4% and the NASDAQ -just 0.1%,posted fractional declines. The SPX index ended up less than 1% below the record high it set on January 12, while the NASDAQ was about 2% shy of its historic peak set nearly three months ago

The stock market’s relatively modest overall setback for the week didn’t come without drama, as U.S. indexes tumbled around 2% on Tuesday before staging a rebound rally the following day. International tensions over Greenland and the related prospect of tariffs were the key catalysts.

Precious metals were in the spotlight as prices surged again , extending rallies parabolically that have lifted gold and silver well above their previous record levels. Gold was trading around $4,985 per ounce on Friday afternoon, while silver surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, just a couple of weeks after it first breached the $80 threshold.

Volatility Pulls Back—but Risks Remain Elevated

The VIX (volatility index)has pulled back from near 21 to 15 over the past week ,but I’m not convinced that we are done with volatility. Next week the Fed will be holding a monetary policy meeting and we’re going to get earnings reports from four mega-cap tech companies (MSFT, META, AAPL, TSLA). I don’t expect any surprises from the Fed meeting (although anything can happen), but I think results out of the tech sector will be a primary driver of trader sentiment next week.

Rotation, AI Concerns, and Key Earnings Ahead

Markets have recently been going through a rotation trade away from mega-cap tech in 2026, but software stocks have been under pressure on AI concerns

Then there’s the red-hot group of memory stocks (SNDK, MU, STX, WDC, along with semi equipment manufacturers like ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX), and we’re going to get results from ASML on Wednesday and SanDisk/Western Digital on Thursday. Buckle up because the potential for big moves, one way or the other, following these reports seems likely

Nasdaq Technical Support Holds—for Now

Traders have mostly shied away from tech stocks in 2026 as money has rotated to other areas of the market. However, interest appears to have perked up over the past couple days, and it coincided with a technical support test for the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). On Tuesday the NDX dropped down to its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the third time over the past three months and fortunately, for the bulls that is, there was another follow-through bounce off this indicator. The test and hold of this support level is bullish as it signals traders willingness to own tech at certain price/valuation levels. Going forward however, the bulls likely don’t want to see a higher frequency of support tests in the near-term, as this could be a harbinger of an eventual break below this indicator.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Next week I encourage you to closely monitor Support levels near SPX 6790 & 6720. Any move blow those with downside energy could see 6630 & possibly 6520 tested. Key resistance lies near 6985. If through that with a thrust we could extend to 7175-90 or more

In any case as we always do at thetechtrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See Technically, Not What We Think”

| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Market Rotation Accelerates in Early 2026

The rotation in market leadership that began in November has accelerated in the early weeks of 2026, sending a distinctly pro-cyclical signal. Small- and mid-caps, value stocks, international equities, and cyclical sectors such as materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary are outperforming—a stark contrast to the narrow, mega-cap-led leadership of the past three years . The common thread across these areas is that they tend to benefit most from an improving economic outlook and the prospect of Fed easing.

Major Indexes Stall as Small Caps Continue to Outperform

The major U.S. indexes posted fractional declines as stocks failed to maintain the previous week’s upward momentum. The S&P 500 traded within a narrow range as earnings season opened, finishing the week 0.5% below a record high that it set on Monday. Nasdaq lead with a loss of 0.7%

The Russell 200 small-cap benchmark outpaced its large-cap peers by a wide margin for the second week in a row, marking a sharp rotation from small caps’ lagging 2025 performance. With its more than 2% weekly gain, the Russell 2000 Index was up nearly 8% on a year-to-date basis versus less than 2% for a comparable large-cap index.

Sector Performance Highlights Rotation

Sector-wise, for the week, the Real Estate sector led all groups with a gain of nearly 4% with the Consumer Staples sector just behind at +3.7%. Leading losers were the Financials -2.3% and the Consumer Discretionary group off 2%

Mega-Cap Tech and Software Divergence Deepens

Divergence continues to develop within mega-cap tech, software and chip stocks, as investors attempt to discern how AI adoption will potentially disrupt business models from former leaders. We have recently seen a divergence in mega-cap tech (AAPL, MSFT, META relative underperformers, GOOGL, AMZN winners), and to some extent within the semiconductor space (semiconductor equipment manufacturers and memory stocks outperforming), and this week software stocks came under pressure.

Multiple familiar large-cap software stocks have fallen to fresh 52-week lows this week: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Atlassian Corp. (TEAM), Docusign (DOCU), HubSpot (HUBS), Monday.com (MNDY), Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY). The bearish narrative that has been developing is that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will disrupt traditional software business models. However, it should be noted that several analysts came out in defense of these traditional players, calling the selling overdone and potentially a buying opportunity.

Technical Warning Signals to Monitor

In addition, I wanted to note that a serious negative divergence on the S&P 500 MACD continues to build, and yet has not affected price for the moment. We’ll need to monitor that closely.

Internationally, the major Japanese stock market benchmark surged 4.2% for the week, surpassing a record high set the previous week. Since mid-December, the index has gained more than 10%

Key Technical Levels

KEY technical levels to be aware of going forward: The SPX resistance is now clearly at the 6885-93 zone. A strong surge above that might get to 7070-75 then possibly 7149-50. Chart support can be seen near 6885, 6835, then 6620-22. Should those levels be penetrated we may see tests of 6620 & 6520

As to the trailing Nasdaq 100 or NDX : Key resistance now at 25875-85 & 26180-85 Support looks to be near 25085, 24645 & 23855.

In any case, as we always do at thetechtrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think”

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| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Markets Push to New All-Time Highs

Markets surged to new ALL TIME HIGHS on most indices to start the new year . The S&P 500 and the Dow surpassed record highs set two weeks earlier, and the NASDAQ climbed to within 1.2% of its historic peak set more than two months ago. On the week, the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.9% ,while the S&P 500 advanced 1.6%.

Small Caps Lead as Market Breadth Expands

The Russell 2000 small cap index outperformed its large-cap peers by a wide margin and eclipsed a record high set four weeks earlier. The Russell 2000 Index added 4.7% for the week.
Over the past month and a half, the index has added nearly 14%.The RUT is up over 6% over the past six trading days, following a bullish bounce off support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the RUT is currently 66, below the “overbought” threshold of 70, suggesting that the index hasn’t yet stretched too far to the upside.

The nearly 5% rally in the RUT, along with the 2.6% move higher in the S&P 500 Equal Weight index (SPXEW), suggest a broadening of the rally and generally a healthier bull market. Sectors such as Health Care, Industrials, Biotech, Materials, and Financials have been the biggest beneficiaries of the rotation trade. Stock group strength was lead by Consumer Discretionary +5.8% & the Materials sector +4.8%

Mega-Cap Tech Diverges as Stock Picking Takes Center Stage

If there was an underperforming area of the market this week it was largely mega-cap tech, which may seem unusual to say, but not if investors are rotating into other areas of the stock market. However, investors are becoming more discerning and not treating all mega-cap tech stocks equally. Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 4.5% and hit a fresh all-time high on Friday and Amazon (AMZN) was up over 9% last week, while Apple (AAPL) lost more than 4% and Nvidia (NVDA) nearly that. Additionally, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) hit a fresh all-time high last week, but it wasn’t driven by the chip leaders of 2025, like NVDA, AVGO, or AMD.

The recent rally in the SOX was mostly fueled by gains in the semiconductor equipment manufacturers (AMAT, ASML, LRCX, KLAC) and memory chip stocks (MU, SNDK). While the expansion in market breadth is an encouraging sign for the bulls, it appears 2026 will be a “stock pickers’ market”.

Commodities, Crypto, Volatility & Key Technical Levels

Precious metals prices rebounded from the previous week’s declines, extending rallies that began to pick up momentum in early 2025. Gold was trading above $4,520 per ounce on Friday afternoon and near a record level set two weeks earlier. Silver surpassed $80 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday and was trading just below that record level on Friday afternoon.

Oil prices fluctuated widely amid a heavy flow of geopolitical news affecting commodity markets. The price of U.S. crude fell to as low as $56 per barrel on Wednesday before rebounding to as high as $60 on Friday, resulting in a more than 3% weekly gain .

Bitcoin continues in a down trend since the early October all time high at $126000 + to form a large wave 2 BEAR wedge and if broken projects to as low as the mid $70’s,with the low $60’s possible

The CBOE volatility index or VIX ,closed unchanged on the week ,but is down 3.25% on the year,so far

Technical levels to monitor closely going forward are shorter term support near SPX 6900-6908, 6824-5, & 6720-22, More intermediate support is seen at 6628-30 & 6520-22 Technical Chart resistance appears near SPX 7100-7120 & 7170-80.

 In any case ,we will always “Trade What We See, Not What We Think” 

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| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Stocks Stall After Record Highs

The S&P 500 and the Dow slipped from the record highs that both indexes had reached the previous week. They regained some ground on Friday’s opening trading day of 2026 but, the results for the first holiday shortened transition week into 2026 saw the S&P 500 lose 1%, while Nasdaq was very near unchanged.

Last week the S&P 500 index (SPX) notched a fresh all-time closing high, surpassing its prior all-time high of 6,920 from back on October 29th, but failed to garner any follow-through momentum to the upside last week.

The SPX is just over 0.5% above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 6,804. Although the new all-time high is bullish, and the longer-term trend remains in a bullish uptrend, on a near-term basis the lack of follow-through conviction may suggest additional sideways consolidation may be needed before trend can be established.

2025 Performance and Market Leadership

The S&P 500’s 17.9% total return for 2025 marked the third year in a row that the index generated a double-digit gain. However, the latest result fell short of 2024’s 25.0% return and 2023’s 26.3% figure, which were the strongest back-to-back annual results since 1997/1998.

The technology-oriented mega-cap stocks known as the Magnificent Seven extended their dominance of the U.S. market. Those seven names contributed 42% of the S&P 500’s total return in 2025 and 55% over the latest three-year period, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Moreover, the Magnificent Seven’s share of the index’s overall market capitalization rose to 34.9% at the end of 2025 from 33.5% at the close of 2024.

For the third year in a row, communication services and information technology were the top-performing sectors in the S&P 500, as they generated total returns of 33.6% and 24.0% in 2025, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. All 11 sectors delivered positive performance; while real estate was the weakest sector, it nevertheless generated a 3.2% return.

January Seasonality and Early-Year Crosscurrents

Historically, January’s stock market performance has been a strong indicator of what may be in store for the rest of the year. In fact, about 72% of the time since 1929, the S&P 500 has posted a positive return for the year after gaining ground in January or has gone on to post an annual loss when the market has declined in the first month, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s also been the case each of the past four years.

The first week of trading for the year can be a bit tricky to assess as conflicting forces can be at play—the January Effect (fresh capital being put to work), capital gain selling by investors waiting on the New Year to postpone taxes and potential rotation into underperforming sectors.

Commodities and Crypto Diverge

Following a steep drop on Friday the prior week, oil prices spent the early part of the week recovering some of those losses. On Wednesday, however, most of those gains were reversed on new expectations for oversupply in the coming months. Altogether, last year was a bearish year for oil prices, influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions. Those same tensions pushed prices lower again to start 2026.

Gold started the week by making a new all-time high just above $4,550, but the bullish price action would be short-lived. The metal closed Monday down over 4.4%. Elsewhere, silver has been the focus for many traders, as prices jumped to a new all-time high above $83 on Monday. It then pulled back over 10%, but recovered a chunk of those losses on Tuesday before falling again on Wednesday. Altogether, gold closed the year up over 64.5%. On Friday, it opened 2026 by rising briefly before reversing much of those gains.

Bitcoin continued to vacillate around its local range to start the week. Following a steep drop of over 17.5% in November, its price spent all of December consolidating. Altogether, it’s coming off a disappointing year for investors, closing 2025 down 6.3% despite making a new all-time high back in October. The same can be said for Ethereum. It fell 10.8% on the year. Traders largely characterize crypto’s recent price action as unsubstantial, and are waiting for greater volatility in either direction for further clues on where the market might head next. On Friday, there were some potential signs of life in the market, with bitcoin making a modest push higher.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Important technical levels to watch in the days and weeks ahead are S&P 500 support near SPX 6800-05, 6720-22, 6630 & a key level at 6520-22. Resistance appears near 6945, 6990-7000 & 7050-75 zone.

For the Nasdaq 100 or NDX, support noted at 24900-20, 24645-50, 24360 & 23850-55. NDX resistance can be seen at 25715, 25825-35 & 26130-35.

In any case, as we always do at thetechtrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

*No credit card required

| By Harry Boxer, Technical Market Analyst

Equity Markets, Volatility, and Global Performance

2025 was a financially rewarding year for traders, with global equity markets delivering strong returns. The S&P 500 recorded 39 new all-time highs, while stock markets in Germany, the U.K., and Japan also surged to record levels. Bonds, though trailing equities, posted positive returns, with U.S. investment-grade bonds achieving their strongest annual gain since 2020. Credit-sensitive fixed-income investments fared even better, with emerging-market debt and U.S. high-yield bonds gaining over 8%.

After two years of relative calm in markets, volatility returned in 2025 as investors faced trade-policy upheaval and a record-breaking government shutdown. The S&P 500 logged 13 daily moves of more than 2% (six higher, seven lower), exceeding the combined total of the prior two years. Twelve of these occurred in the first half of the year following the Trump administration’s April tariff announcements. Stocks fell sharply on recession fears, with the S&P 500 dropping 19% from its peak.

However, subsequent negotiations lowered tariffs to levels still elevated by historical standards but meaningfully below the April peak. De-escalating trade tensions, steady economic activity, and ongoing AI enthusiasm helped pave the way for strong earnings growth and market gains, with the S&P 500 posting its third consecutive year of returns over 15%.

Sector Leadership and Index Performance

The three distinct groups that led the market this year were Communications Services +34.1%, Information Technology +25.7%, and Industrials +21.3%. Year to date the major indices surged nearly 18% for the S&P 500 and 22.2% for Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is at +13.64% for the year.

The benefits of global diversification were evident in 2025, with international stocks outperforming U.S. equities by 13%, the largest margin since 2009. Fiscal stimulus in Germany and monetary easing by the European Central Bank supported eurozone economic activity and markets. In Japan, equities posted strong gains despite higher U.S. tariff rates, with corporate profit margins surging to an all-time high.

On the week, the S&P 500 surpassed a record high on Tuesday and the Dow followed suit on Wednesday, pushing above their previous peaks set less than two weeks earlier. In a holiday-shortened trading week the S&P 500 led advances with a 1.4% gain, followed by Nasdaq +1.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index was the worst performer of the major indexes, finishing the week 0.19% higher.

Precious Metals, Crypto, and Oil

Precious metals prices pushed their record levels higher, with silver surpassing $77 per ounce for the first time and gold and platinum also setting record highs. Silver is up around 155% year to date based on Friday afternoon’s price and gold was up about 70%.

A rough end to a big year for bitcoin: Bitcoin investors had a lot to be thankful for this year. Growing legitimacy among institutional investors, a pro-crypto U.S. administration and major legislation, and all-time highs. But the last quarter hasn’t gone so well. A major crypto liquidation event in October rattled investors, and bitcoin futures prices are down around 24% since then, putting it about 7% lower on the year.

Meanwhile, gold and silver have soared since that crypto liquidation in October, with their futures prices rising about 13% and 51%, respectively. The metals’ moves call into question a core element of bitcoin’s investment thesis: that it’s a store of value, the new “digital gold.” With bitcoin’s price currently limping along in a narrow range, investors may find out relatively soon whether the early days and weeks of 2026 will bring more pain or a revival of bullish sentiment.

The price of oil rebounded modestly in the latest week, although it remained on pace for the steepest full-year decline since 2020. U.S. crude was trading around $57 per barrel on Friday afternoon, well below its year-end 2024 level of about $72.

Volatility and Technical Outlook Heading Into 2026

An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell on Wednesday to the lowest level in more than 12 months. The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 13.6, down from a recent high of 26.4 on November 20. The year-to-date high came in early April, when the VIX surged above 50 amid uncertainty over tariffs.

Technically the markets are quite extended and vulnerable to retracements/pullbacks. Be very alert in the first part of 2026 to the possibility of a substantial decline. Pay close attention to short and intermediate-term support levels. They can be found near SPX 6850 and 6790, but 6720-22 represents a level that if broken might send the indices substantially lower. Resistance lies near 6945-50, 6990, 7000 and 7040-50.

Final Thought

In any case, as we always do at thetechtrader.com, we’ll “Trade What We See, Not What We Think.”

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